England Tops The Table
A 2023 BBC report claimed England tops the world league table of luxury watch heists. The report came off the back of a documentary ‘Hunting the Rolex Rippers’ which can be seen on BBC iPlayer.
With the increase in publicity around the theft of luxury watches, we wanted to take a look at the data to check the facts and see what the threat landscape actually looks like for you, the watch enthusiast.
Methodology
We decided to look at the data for London due to the availability of data and because this is the area in which there has been the focus of much of the press reporting, although other areas such as Cheshire have featured.
We used data from the Metropolitan Police area, available from their website. Additionally, we submitted a freedom of information request to obtain data for missing periods, so we could see the trend over a period of time rather than a short isolated period.
We were interested in numbers of theft, whether this was against the person, whether violence was used and the value of stolen watches.
Background
From a criminals perspective, the motivation to steal watches can be easily seen. Watches are small, high value items for which a readily available used market place exists, so they are easily converted in to cash. They are worn in the public domain, where access is readily available; so as we can see we have a relationship of high motivation, good opportunity and low skill or ability required to steal them.
With a high demand from the watch resale market, compounded by black markets or second hand markets where companies and individuals don’t necessarily conduct due diligence, check serial numbers, or send watches to the manufacturers for servicing prior to sale; stolen watches can easily make their way on to consumers wrists.
Demand or availability are strong potential motivators for theft, Rolex is renowned as being a popular resale timepiece and therefore comes as no surprise that Rolex topped the stolen list for 2022 and 2023 by a considerable margin.
What does the data say?
We looked at data from 2016-2023 inclusive, excluding the partial year of 2024 (3 months at the time of writing). This combined ONS data with that provided by the Metropolitan Police. The results were interesting…
The period 2016 to 2023 showed a declining trend. The total value of watches stolen from a 2016 peak of £94.5M to 2023 of £42.1M. 2016 did have an outlying month in March with £72M in stolen watches.
2021 represented a 7 year low at £25.4M of recorded thefts.
Decline in the number of thefts.
Increase in the value of thefts
An annual value of £40M seems to be the baseline figure
2016 an outlier. March 2016, saw a total theft value of £72M, it is unknown what caused this spike and if it is genuine or due to a backlog of data. Reducing this month to be comparible with other months in the year would have seen a figure of nearer £25M.
Chart displays the value of theft by year with the number of recorded theft counts. Note multiple watches may be stolen in one count of theft.
Watchfinder and GQ
According to police data obtained by pre-owned specialist Watchfinder & Co, cases in England and Wales almost doubled between 2015 and 2022 – from 6,696 to 11,035 – and in 2022 there was a 41 per cent increase in thefts from 2021. London accounted for nearly half of UK cases in 2022, with 600 stolen in December alone.
GQ article - https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/watch-theft-report-2023
What are the tactics?
Theft of watches occurs over a range of crimes, theft from the person, theft from the home and theft from a commercial enterprise such as a jewellers. If we look at the most concerning, theft from the person, reporting gives a good idea of the tactics used and how they fit with the crime cycle:
Target selection
Planning
Deployment
Crime
Escape
Exploitation
Target Selection
One victim interviewed believed that his watch could not have observed while he was walking in public on the street and felt that it was likely seen while in a restaurant when he removed longer sleeved clothing. This indicates that watch theft from the person is likely more complex and planned than pure opportunity alone, with a network of persons who can recognise watches and alert others who commit the theft.
Planning
The operation is low complexity and may not be the first time the offender has committed the crime. This shortens the planning phase. The threat actor would likely want to confirm the target, the item to be stolen and select an appropriate place to commit the crime. Look out for being followed by people or repetitive sightings of vehicles such as mopeds with multiple persons.
Deployment and Crime
Modern tactics indicate that the planning, deployment and crime occur in a very quick sequence of events. The canvassing of high wealth areas to target vulnerable, unsuspecting and unaware victims very quickly, using threats of violence before a rapid escape.
Chart showing the relationship between violence and theft in watch thefts from the person
Escape
London in particular saw the use of mopeds with high success. This method enabled a speedy approach and withdrawal, with assailants unrestricted by traffic or confined to the rioad network to facilitate a quick escape from the scene.
How has the use of violence changed?
Statistics showed that in London, while the count of thefts from the person had decreased, the use of violence in these events had increased over time. Often large knives are used to frighten individuals in to handing over their possessions.
The Ozil incident - Blue Tick Show. Demonstrates the tactics used, canvassing an area and talks about the low prices obtained by theives.
How can you help?
If you’re reading this you’re likely to be a owner, collector or admirer and aspirational owner of luxury watches. The black market in stolen watches fuels demand, likely compounded by rising values. As a buyer, you can have a direct impact:
Buy legitimate items - Check the Watch Register when buying second hand or to register a loss
Buy from reputable merchants - Good resellers will have checked the history of your timepiece and will provide you with protection.
Should you be afraid to wear your watch in the UK?
The research is both reassuring and cautionary:
In London watch thefts are down
The value of watches stolen is at a similar level to 2017
The use of and likelihood of violence in watch theft has increased
The average value of theft has increased, this could indicate better targeting of high value items but also the rise in value of items
If you want to wear your expensive timepiece, and why wouldn’t you, think about these red flags:
Attention by others - comments, questioning, lasting glances even by staff in bars and restaurants
Particular attention to the watch face which may feel unnatural
Feelings of, or being followed - by foot, mopeds or e-bikes
If you do notice any suspicious behaviour or feel uncomfortable take positive action such as:
Avoiding low footfall or quiet areas
Take a cab
Notify the police or local security
Perhaps you would like a strategy to ensure you can wear your valuables without concern or to protect them from theft at home.
Contact BluSkills today to speak to an expert.
